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Risk assessment: likelihood and impact

After this lesson: I can rate a risk by its likelihood and its impact.

55 min lesson3 commandsLinux administration lab: users, permissions, cron and systemd in your browser

What is a security risk?

A security risk is the chance that a threat harms an asset, together with how bad that harm would be. Rating risks lets you fix the worst ones first.

A small business cannot fix everything. A risk table tells it where the next hour and the next pound should go.

By the end of this lesson

Note

I can rate a risk by its likelihood and its impact.

Key words

WordWhat it means
Riskthe chance of harm, and how bad it would be
Likelihoodhow likely a harm is, from 1 to 5
Impacthow bad the harm would be, from 1 to 5
Risk scorelikelihood multiplied by impact
Controla step that lowers a risk
Risk registera table of risks, scores and decisions

The cells students fill in are left blank in this preview.

A risk score is likelihood times impact

Give each risk two numbers from 1 to 5. Likelihood is how likely the harm is. Impact is how bad it would be.

Multiply them. The answer is the risk score, from 1 to 25. A big score means fix it soon.

The numbers are judgements, not measurements. Agree the meaning of each step with the people who share the table.

Worked example: a small risk register

RiskLikelihoodImpactScore
Weak password on the admin account4520
A disk fails and there is no backup2510
The office printer jams515
A visitor reads a screen over a shoulder326

The cells students fill in are left blank in this preview.

Let the shell multiply: likelihood 4, impact 5

Command
echo $((4 * 5))

Shown here, not run. Create a free account to press Run and type it into your own lab’s terminal.

Likelihood 2, impact 5

Command
echo $((2 * 5))

Shown here, not run. Create a free account to press Run and type it into your own lab’s terminal.

Bands turn a score into a decision

A score alone does not say what to do. Most teams group scores into bands.

In this lesson, 15 or more is high, 8 to 14 is medium and 7 or less is low. High risks get a control now. Medium risks get a plan. Low risks are watched.

Other teams choose other bands. What matters is that everyone uses the same ones.

Worked example: bands and what they mean

ScoreBandWhat the team does
15 to 25HighAdd a control this week
8 to 14MediumPlan a control and set a date
1 to 7LowWrite it down and watch it

The cells students fill in are left blank in this preview.

An asset to rate: the lab's shared folder

Command
stat -c "%a %U %G" /srv/projects

Shown here, not run. Create a free account to press Run and type it into your own lab’s terminal.

Rate the folder before you change anything

On a fresh lab machine the command prints 755 root root. Every user can read what is stored there. If you have already changed the folder, you will see your own settings.

Imagine the folder holds a team's project notes. Is reading by every user likely? What would it cost? Write your two numbers down, then multiply.

A common mistake

Warning

Many people think a rare event can be ignored. Likelihood alone does not decide. A disk failure is unlikely in a given month, but with no backup it costs everything, so it scores 10. A jammed printer is common and scores 5. Always multiply both numbers.

Four responses to a risk

Once a risk is rated, the team chooses a response.

To reduce it, add a control. To avoid it, stop the risky activity. To share it, move part of the cost, for example with insurance. To accept it, decide to live with it and write down why.

Going further

Write a risk register of five risks for your own laptop. Give each a likelihood, an impact, a score and a band.

Then add one control to the top risk and score it again. Which number moved, the likelihood or the impact?

About this lab and its source: Linux administration lab: users, permissions, cron and systemd in your browser

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