We said 40 and got 30
Before each email, the team wrote down how many clicks they expected. Now the results are in. Some beat the guess. Some fell short.
Comparing what you predicted with what happened is how a team learns. It also shows if its guesses can be trusted.
Key words
| Word | What it means | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Prediction | A guess about a future result, made before it happens. | We expect 40 clicks |
| Actual result | What really happened. | 30 clicks |
| Gap | The actual result minus the prediction. | Minus 10 |
| Conclusion | A statement you can support with the data. | The menu email missed its target |
| Technical language | Words used by people in a field, used correctly. | Open rate, gap |
| Visualisation | Showing data as a picture so patterns are easy to see. | Paired bars |
| Heat map | A grid where shade shows how big each value is. | Click rate by day and hour |
The cells students fill in are left blank in this preview.
By the end of this lesson
Note
I can compare predictions with actual results, draw a fair conclusion and present it clearly with a visual.
Starter: what you already know
Have a go
Starter: what you already know
3 questionsYour answers are marked here and are not kept. A college account keeps every student’s marks.
Work out the gap
Gap means actual minus predicted. A negative gap means the result fell short. A positive gap means it did better.
Pick a margin before you look, such as five clicks either way. Inside the margin is "on target".
Worked example: four campaigns
| Campaign | Predicted clicks | Actual clicks | Gap | Verdict, margin 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Menu update | 40 | 30 | -10 | Below |
| Fruit stall news | 40 | 45 | +5 | On target |
| Trip reminder | 20 | 15 | -5 | On target |
| Survey invite | 50 | 60 | +10 | Above |
The cells students fill in are left blank in this preview.
Try it: gaps with SQL
select campaign, predicted, actual,
actual - predicted as gap
from results
order by gap;
-- Try it: add repeat('#', actual // 5) as bar to see the actual results.
Check: read the gaps
Have a go
Check: read the gaps
4 questionsYour answers are marked here and are not kept. A college account keeps every student’s marks.